The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Push for Glory

A mere two months ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of Villa's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

A Touchline Reaction of Joy

In the latest match, however, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Formidable Weapon

How Long Can This Continue?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United managed more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.

  • The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
  • The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like an essential England player.

This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.

Patrick Robinson
Patrick Robinson

A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in reviewing online casinos and betting sites across Europe.